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Gas mining under the Wadden Sea UNESCO World Heritage area might lead to ecological damage. A recent evaluation suggests little to no ecological impact from soil subsidence, yet multiple studies are disregarded in this report. Our overview shows that subsidence has led to more frequent nest ooding, already causing a substantial decline in the oystercatcher population. In addition, some tidal ats are subsiding and benthic species and the birds that feed on these prey are declining. In a dynamic ecosystem, 100 % certainty about the impact of mining is impossible. However, we must be cautious not to attribute an e ect to natural variation or other factors without thorough justi cation. Also, if no e ect is found, it should not automatically be concluded that gas extraction has no impact. The key question is whether there is ‘reasonable doubt’ about the deterioration of Natura 2000-goals, with the burden of proof on the mining companies to demonstrate that gas extraction is not the cause. Our overview shows that there is now clearly ‘reasonable doubt’. Should the government decide to halt the gas mining, this would not reverse subsidence or ecological harm anymore. This shows that the Hand-on-the-Tap principle falls short in preventing ecological damage. We highlight shortcomings in the current monitoring program and o er suggestions for improvement, aiming to inform and alert policymakers, researchers, and stakeholders to the critical need for more rigorous evaluation of existing monitoring programs and future permits.